Austria Lustenau vs Ried

Dum, 15:00 · Main prediction: Unentschieden · 38.3% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

UnentschiedenMain pick

58.4%Over 2.5

60.1%BTTS Yes

⚠️ Lean: Draw (low conf) Draw pick below 55% confidence — statistically unreliable.

Model vs market probabilities

Austria Lustenau	43.3% / 35.4%
Unentschieden	35.8% / 29.4%
Ried	20.9% / 35.2%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Meci echilibrat, șanse mari de egal (36% probabilitate model). Piața subapreciază (36% model vs 29% bookmaker, edge +6%).

Tactical signal: Value Detected.
Tactical signal: Contrarian: Home.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.53) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random
Draw picks historically underperform — markets often under-price draws
Contrarian signal active — sharp money may disagree with the model

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

Austria Lustenau @ 2.64 · fair odds: 2.31 · edge 7.9%
Draw @ 3.14 · fair odds: 2.79 · edge 6.4%
Ried @ 2.66 · fair odds: 4.78 · edge -14.3%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Austria Lustenau vs Ried

Austria Lustenau host Ried on Sun, 15:00 in Austria Bundesliga (Austria). The ScoreSight model favours Unentschieden with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: Austria Lustenau 43%, Draw 36%, Ried 21%. Over 2.5 goals: 58% · BTTS: 60%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 14.3%. Tactical signal: Value Detected.