Bahia vs Chapecoense

Today, 22:30 · Main prediction: Bahia Win · 60.2% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Bahia WinMain pick

43.5%Under 2.5

54.0%BTTS Yes

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Bahia	65.2% / N/A
Draw	20.4% / N/A
Chapecoense	14.4% / N/A

🧠 Why this prediction?

Bahia favorit acasă (65% probabilitate model).

Tactical signal: High Confidence.
Tactical signal: Contrarian: Away.

Why could this be wrong?

Contrarian signal active — sharp money may disagree with the model

Model certainty

🟡 Model certainty: Medium

Confidence 60%, some data missing.

CLV — closing line value

⚪ CLV: Neutral

No strong market movement detected. Edge may hold to closing.

Odds & edge

Bahia @ 1.43 · fair odds: 1.53 · edge 0.0%
Draw @ 4.56 · fair odds: 4.90 · edge 0.0%
Chapecoense @ 6.49 · fair odds: 6.94 · edge 0.0%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Bahia vs Chapecoense

Bahia host Chapecoense on Today, 22:30 in Brasileirão (Brazil). The ScoreSight model favours Bahia Win with 60% confidence. Model probabilities: Bahia 65%, Draw 20%, Chapecoense 14%. Over 2.5 goals: 44% · BTTS: 54%. Tactical signal: High Confidence.

Match completed 📊 Post-match stats available →

Half-by-half xG, lineups and event timeline for completed matches.