Mirassol vs Grêmio

Azi, 23:00 · Main prediction: Sieg Mirassol · 43.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Sieg MirassolMain pick

43.3%Under 2.5

52.0%BTTS Yes

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Mirassol	48.0% / 49.0%
Unentschieden	28.2% / 27.9%
Grêmio	23.8% / 23.1%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Mirassol favorit acasă (48% probabilitate model). Model și piață în acord (48%).

The model sees a moderate imbalance in probabilities versus the market.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.52) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (43%) — prediction is close to random

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

Mirassol @ 1.95 · fair odds: 2.08 · edge -1.0%
Draw @ 3.32 · fair odds: 3.55 · edge 0.3%
Grêmio @ 3.94 · fair odds: 4.20 · edge 0.6%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Mirassol vs Grêmio

Mirassol host Grêmio on Today, 23:00 in Brasileirão (Brazil). The ScoreSight model favours Sieg Mirassol with 43% confidence. Model probabilities: Mirassol 48%, Draw 28%, Grêmio 24%. Over 2.5 goals: 43% · BTTS: 52%.

Match completed 📊 Post-match stats available →

Half-by-half xG, lineups and event timeline for completed matches.