Cracovia Kraków vs Pogoń Szczecin

Mon, 17:00 · Main prediction: Draw · 38.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

DrawMain pick

50.0%Under 2.5

55.5%BTTS Yes

⛔ Match to Avoid High market entropy — model and market disagree significantly. Risk is elevated.

Model vs market probabilities

Cracovia Kraków	39.7% / 40.0%
Draw	34.6% / 34.7%
Pogoń Szczecin	25.7% / 25.3%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Meci echilibrat, șanse mari de egal (35% probabilitate model). Model și piață în acord (35%).

Tactical signal: Uncertain Match.
Tactical signal: Weak Home Ground.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.56) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random
Draw picks historically underperform — markets often under-price draws

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

Cracovia Kraków @ 2.39 · fair odds: 2.52 · edge -0.3%
Draw @ 2.74 · fair odds: 2.89 · edge -0.1%
Pogoń Szczecin @ 3.69 · fair odds: 3.89 · edge 0.4%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Cracovia Kraków vs Pogoń Szczecin

Cracovia Kraków host Pogoń Szczecin on Mon, 17:00 in Ekstraklasa (Poland). The ScoreSight model favours Draw with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: Cracovia Kraków 40%, Draw 35%, Pogoń Szczecin 26%. Over 2.5 goals: 50% · BTTS: 56%. Tactical signal: Uncertain Match.