Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Białystok

Vin, 18:30 · Main prediction: Win Jagiellonia Białystok · 38.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Win Jagiellonia BiałystokMain pick

50.5%Under 2.5

55.5%BTTS Yes

⛔ Match to Avoid High market entropy — model and market disagree significantly. Risk is elevated.

Model vs market probabilities

Motor Lublin	32.5% / 32.4%
Draw	26.8% / 26.4%
Jagiellonia Białystok	40.7% / 41.2%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Jagiellonia Białystok favorit în deplasare (41% probabilitate model). Model și piață în acord (41%).

Tactical signal: Uncertain Match.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.56) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

Motor Lublin @ 2.9 · fair odds: 3.08 · edge 0.1%
Draw @ 3.51 · fair odds: 3.73 · edge 0.4%
Jagiellonia Białystok @ 2.31 · fair odds: 2.46 · edge -0.5%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Białystok

Motor Lublin host Jagiellonia Białystok on Fri, 18:30 in Ekstraklasa (Poland). The ScoreSight model favours Win Jagiellonia Białystok with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: Motor Lublin 33%, Draw 27%, Jagiellonia Białystok 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 51% · BTTS: 56%. Tactical signal: Uncertain Match.