Aalesund vs Tromso

Dum, 15:00 · Main prediction: Sieg Aalesund · 38.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Sieg AalesundMain pick

53.7%Over 2.5

54.5%BTTS Yes

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Aalesund	41.7% / 23.6%
Unentschieden	23.5% / 24.8%
Tromso	34.8% / 51.6%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Aalesund favorit acasă (42% probabilitate model). Piața subapreciază (42% model vs 24% bookmaker, edge +18%).

Tactical signal: Strong Value.
Tactical signal: Clean Discipline.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.55) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

Aalesund @ 3.83 · fair odds: 2.40 · edge 18.0%
Draw @ 3.66 · fair odds: 4.26 · edge -1.3%
Tromso @ 1.85 · fair odds: 2.87 · edge -16.7%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Aalesund vs Tromso

Aalesund host Tromso on Sun, 15:00 in Eliteserien (Norway). The ScoreSight model favours Sieg Aalesund with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: Aalesund 42%, Draw 24%, Tromso 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 54% · BTTS: 55%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 18.0%. Tactical signal: Strong Value.