Puebla vs Guadalajara

Sâm, 01:00 · Main prediction: Sieg Guadalajara · 38.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Sieg GuadalajaraMain pick

37.0%Under 2.5

42.6%BTTS No

⛔ Match to Avoid High market entropy — model and market disagree significantly. Risk is elevated.

Model vs market probabilities

Puebla	25.8% / 21.9%
Unentschieden	31.4% / 23.8%
Guadalajara	42.8% / 54.3%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Guadalajara favorit în deplasare (43% probabilitate model).

Tactical signal: Value Detected.
Tactical signal: Uncertain Match.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.55) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

Puebla @ 4.03 · fair odds: 3.88 · edge 3.8%
Draw @ 3.75 · fair odds: 3.18 · edge 7.7%
Guadalajara @ 1.75 · fair odds: 2.34 · edge -11.5%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Puebla vs Guadalajara

Puebla host Guadalajara on Sat, 01:00 in Liga MX (Mexico). The ScoreSight model favours Sieg Guadalajara with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: Puebla 26%, Draw 31%, Guadalajara 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 37% · BTTS: 43%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 11.5%. Tactical signal: Value Detected.