Toronto FC vs New England Revolution

15 Aug, 23:30 · Main prediction: Sieg Toronto FC · 38.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Sieg Toronto FCMain pick

47.4%Under 2.5

53.6%BTTS Yes

⛔ Match to Avoid High market entropy — model and market disagree significantly. Risk is elevated.

Model vs market probabilities

Toronto FC	39.7% / 40.3%
Unentschieden	25.4% / 24.6%
New England Revolution	34.9% / 35.0%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Toronto FC favorit acasă (40% probabilitate model). Model și piață în acord (40%).

Tactical signal: Balanced Match.
Tactical signal: Uncertain Match.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.56) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random
Balanced probabilities — small model signal, easy to flip
Contrarian signal active — sharp money may disagree with the model

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

Toronto FC @ 2.3 · fair odds: 2.52 · edge -0.6%
Draw @ 3.6 · fair odds: 3.94 · edge 0.7%
New England Revolution @ 2.62 · fair odds: 2.87 · edge -0.1%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Toronto FC vs New England Revolution

Toronto FC host New England Revolution on 15 Aug, 23:30 in MLS (USA). The ScoreSight model favours Sieg Toronto FC with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: Toronto FC 40%, Draw 25%, New England Revolution 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 47% · BTTS: 54%. Tactical signal: Balanced Match.