Burnley vs Wolves

24 Mai, 15:00 · Main prediction: Sieg Burnley · 40.2% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Sieg BurnleyMain pick

41.5%Under 2.5

46.6%BTTS No

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Burnley	45.2% / 41.0%
Unentschieden	26.0% / 26.2%
Wolves	28.8% / 32.8%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Burnley favorit acasă (45% probabilitate model).

Tactical signal: Away Strong Finisher.
Tactical signal: Weak Home Ground.
Absences and squad availability affect the match read.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.54) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (40%) — prediction is close to random

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Absence numeric impact

Burnley: 1 CB absent — central space available
Wolves: GK absent — lineup disruption

Odds & edge

Burnley @ 2.32 · fair odds: 2.21 · edge 4.1%
Draw @ 3.54 · fair odds: 3.85 · edge -0.2%
Wolves @ 2.87 · fair odds: 3.47 · edge -3.9%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Burnley vs Wolves

Burnley host Wolves on 24 May, 15:00 in Premier League (England). The ScoreSight model favours Sieg Burnley with 40% confidence. Model probabilities: Burnley 45%, Draw 26%, Wolves 29%. Over 2.5 goals: 42% · BTTS: 47%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 4.1%. Tactical signal: Away Strong Finisher. 3 absences recorded across both squads.

Match completed 📊 Post-match stats available →

Half-by-half xG, lineups and event timeline for completed matches.