Everton vs Crystal Palace

22 Aug, 14:00 · Main prediction: Sieg Crystal Palace · 38.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Sieg Crystal PalaceMain pick

46.9%Under 2.5

51.4%BTTS No

⛔ Match to Avoid High market entropy — model and market disagree significantly. Risk is elevated.

Model vs market probabilities

Everton	33.7% / 47.5%
Unentschieden	28.6% / 26.3%
Crystal Palace	37.8% / 26.2%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Crystal Palace favorit în deplasare (38% probabilitate model). Piața subapreciază (38% model vs 26% bookmaker, edge +12%).

Tactical signal: Strong Value.
Tactical signal: Balanced Match.
Absences and squad availability affect the match read.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.58) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random
Balanced probabilities — small model signal, easy to flip

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Absence numeric impact

Crystal Palace: 1 CB absent — central space available

Odds & edge

Everton @ 2 · fair odds: 2.97 · edge -13.9%
Draw @ 3.47 · fair odds: 3.50 · edge 2.2%
Crystal Palace @ 3.49 · fair odds: 2.65 · edge 11.6%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Everton vs Crystal Palace

Everton host Crystal Palace on 22 Aug, 14:00 in Premier League (England). The ScoreSight model favours Sieg Crystal Palace with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: Everton 34%, Draw 29%, Crystal Palace 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 47% · BTTS: 51%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 13.9%. Tactical signal: Strong Value. 1 absence recorded across both squads.