Casa Pia vs Rio Ave

16 May, 17:00 · Main prediction: Casa Pia Win · 47.1% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Casa Pia WinMain pick

46.2%Under 2.5

50.1%BTTS No

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Casa Pia	54.1% / 58.7%
Draw	26.1% / 23.0%
Rio Ave	19.8% / 18.4%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Casa Pia favorit acasă (54% probabilitate model).

Tactical signal: Weak Home Ground.
Tactical signal: Steam: Odds Drifting Out.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.45) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (47%) — prediction is close to random

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚪ CLV: Neutral

No strong market movement detected. Edge may hold to closing.

Odds & edge

Casa Pia @ 1.64 · fair odds: 1.85 · edge -4.6%
Draw @ 3.96 · fair odds: 3.83 · edge 3.1%
Rio Ave @ 4.84 · fair odds: 5.05 · edge 1.5%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Casa Pia vs Rio Ave

Casa Pia host Rio Ave on 16 May, 17:00 in Primeira Liga (Portugal). The ScoreSight model favours Casa Pia Win with 47% confidence. Model probabilities: Casa Pia 54%, Draw 26%, Rio Ave 20%. Over 2.5 goals: 46% · BTTS: 50%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 4.6%. Tactical signal: Weak Home Ground.

Match completed 📊 Post-match stats available →

Half-by-half xG, lineups and event timeline for completed matches.