Famalicao vs Alverca

16 Mai, 19:30 · Main prediction: Sieg Famalicao · 49.1% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Sieg FamalicaoMain pick

49.3%Under 2.5

52.2%BTTS Yes

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Famalicao	54.1% / 60.6%
Unentschieden	27.1% / 22.3%
Alverca	18.8% / 17.1%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Famalicao favorit acasă (54% probabilitate model). Fortăreață acasă (11 pts ultimele 5 meciuri home).

Tactical signal: Away Strong Finisher.
Tactical signal: Contrarian: Away.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.44) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (49%) — prediction is close to random
Contrarian signal active — sharp money may disagree with the model

Model certainty

🟡 Model certainty: Medium

Confidence 49%, some data missing.

CLV — closing line value

⚪ CLV: Neutral

No strong market movement detected. Edge may hold to closing.

Odds & edge

Famalicao @ 1.59 · fair odds: 1.85 · edge -6.6%
Draw @ 4.08 · fair odds: 3.69 · edge 4.9%
Alverca @ 5.17 · fair odds: 5.32 · edge 1.7%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Famalicao vs Alverca

Famalicao host Alverca on 16 May, 19:30 in Primeira Liga (Portugal). The ScoreSight model favours Sieg Famalicao with 49% confidence. Model probabilities: Famalicao 54%, Draw 27%, Alverca 19%. Over 2.5 goals: 49% · BTTS: 52%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 6.6%. Tactical signal: Away Strong Finisher.

Match completed 📊 Post-match stats available →

Half-by-half xG, lineups and event timeline for completed matches.