Italy · Serie A

Bologna vs Lazio

22 Aug, 13:00 · Main prediction: Win Lazio · 39.3% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Win LazioMain pick

49.6%Under 2.5

52.5%BTTS Yes

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Bologna	28.1% / 46.7%
Draw	25.6% / 28.5%
Lazio	46.3% / 24.8%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Lazio favorit în deplasare (46% probabilitate model). Lazio puternic în deplasare (9 pts ultimele 5 away).

Tactical signal: Strong Value.
Tactical signal: Away: Late scorer.
Absences and squad availability affect the match read.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.53) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (39%) — prediction is close to random

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Absence numeric impact

Bologna: Attacking threat reduced
Lazio: GK absent — lineup disruption
Lazio: CDM absent — midfield cover reduced

Odds & edge

Bologna @ 1.98 · fair odds: 3.56 · edge -18.6%
Draw @ 3.1 · fair odds: 3.91 · edge -2.8%
Lazio @ 3.5 · fair odds: 2.16 · edge 21.5%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Bologna vs Lazio

Bologna host Lazio on 22 Aug, 13:00 in Serie A (Italy). The ScoreSight model favours Win Lazio with 39% confidence. Model probabilities: Bologna 28%, Draw 26%, Lazio 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 50% · BTTS: 53%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 21.5%. Tactical signal: Strong Value. 3 absences recorded across both squads.