Italy · Serie A

Genoa vs Napoli

22 Aug, 13:00 · Main prediction: Napoli Win · 62.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Napoli WinMain pick

49.8%Under 2.5

51.5%BTTS No

✓ Value Bet Edge 9.4% vs market. Proceed with normal stake.

Model vs market probabilities

Genoa	12.1% / 16.3%
Draw	20.9% / 26.1%
Napoli	67.0% / 57.6%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Napoli favorit în deplasare (67% probabilitate model). Napoli în formă superioară (formă: 10 vs 2 pts). Market edge detected: +9.4% vs Bet365.

Tactical signal: Value Detected.
Tactical signal: High Confidence.
Absences and squad availability affect the match read.

Model certainty

🟢 Model certainty: High

Confidence 62%, low entropy, full data — signal is reliable.

CLV — closing line value

⚪ CLV: Neutral

No strong market movement detected. Edge may hold to closing.

Absence numeric impact

Genoa: GK absent — lineup disruption
Genoa: CDM absent — midfield cover reduced
Genoa: Attacking threat reduced
Napoli: CDM absent — midfield cover reduced

Odds & edge

Genoa @ 5 · fair odds: 8.26 · edge -4.2%
Draw @ 3.35 · fair odds: 4.78 · edge -5.2%
Napoli @ 1.63 · fair odds: 1.49 · edge 9.4%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Genoa vs Napoli

Genoa host Napoli on 22 Aug, 13:00 in Serie A (Italy). The ScoreSight model favours Napoli Win with 62% confidence. Model probabilities: Genoa 12%, Draw 21%, Napoli 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 50% · BTTS: 52%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 9.4%. Tactical signal: Value Detected. 4 absences recorded across both squads.