Italy · Serie A

Genoa vs Napoli

23 Aug, 16:30 · Main prediction: Sieg Napoli · 58.5% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Sieg NapoliMain pick

49.4%Under 2.5

51.5%BTTS No

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Genoa	16.7% / N/A
Unentschieden	19.8% / N/A
Napoli	63.5% / N/A

🧠 Why this prediction?

Napoli favorit în deplasare (63% probabilitate model). Napoli în formă superioară (formă: 10 vs 2 pts).

Tactical signal: High Confidence.
Tactical signal: Coach Advantage Away.
Absences and squad availability affect the match read.

Model certainty

🟡 Model certainty: Medium

Confidence 59%, some data missing.

CLV — closing line value

⚪ CLV: Neutral

No strong market movement detected. Edge may hold to closing.

Absence numeric impact

Genoa: GK absent — lineup disruption
Genoa: CDM absent — midfield cover reduced
Genoa: Attacking threat reduced
Napoli: CDM absent — midfield cover reduced

Analysis: Genoa vs Napoli

Genoa host Napoli on 23 Aug, 16:30 in Serie A (Italy). The ScoreSight model favours Sieg Napoli with 59% confidence. Model probabilities: Genoa 17%, Draw 20%, Napoli 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 49% · BTTS: 52%. Tactical signal: High Confidence. 4 absences recorded across both squads.