Italy · Serie A

Lecce vs Genoa

24 Mai, 18:45 · Main prediction: Sieg Genoa · 38.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Sieg GenoaMain pick

48.1%Under 2.5

50.9%BTTS No

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Lecce	33.4% / 55.3%
Unentschieden	24.3% / 26.6%
Genoa	42.2% / 18.1%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Genoa favorit în deplasare (42% probabilitate model). Genoa puternic în deplasare (8 pts ultimele 5 away).

Tactical signal: Strong Value.
Tactical signal: Home: Fast starter.
Absences and squad availability affect the match read.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.55) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random
Genoa missing 28% squad value — lineup disruption

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Absence numeric impact

Lecce: 10% squad value absent — significant squad weakening
Genoa: 28% squad value absent — significant squad weakening
Lecce: Attacking threat reduced
Genoa: GK absent — lineup disruption
Genoa: 1 CB absent — central space available

Referee profile

Referee: Domenica 24/05

Discipline & cards

Lecce — red card risk: Niedrig (5%)
Genoa — red card risk: Niedrig (5%)
Lecce: 1.98 yellows/game (season)
Genoa: 2.07 yellows/game (season)
Volatility: Medium

Odds & edge

Lecce @ 1.74 · fair odds: 2.99 · edge -21.8%
Draw @ 3.47 · fair odds: 4.12 · edge -2.3%
Genoa @ 4.91 · fair odds: 2.37 · edge 24.1%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Lecce vs Genoa

Lecce host Genoa on 24 May, 18:45 in Serie A (Italy). The ScoreSight model favours Sieg Genoa with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: Lecce 33%, Draw 24%, Genoa 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 48% · BTTS: 51%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 24.1%. Tactical signal: Strong Value. 11 absences recorded across both squads.

Match completed 📊 Post-match stats available →

Half-by-half xG, lineups and event timeline for completed matches.