Milan vs Cagliari

24 Mai, 18:45 · Main prediction: Sieg Milan · 51.9% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Sieg MilanMain pick

54.7%Over 2.5

52.1%BTTS Yes

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Milan	58.9% / N/A
Unentschieden	23.0% / N/A
Cagliari	18.1% / N/A

🧠 Why this prediction?

Milan favorit acasă (59% probabilitate model).

Tactical signal: High Confidence.
Tactical signal: Coach Advantage Home.
Absences and squad availability affect the match read.

Why could this be wrong?

Low model confidence (52%) — prediction is close to random
Contrarian signal active — sharp money may disagree with the model

Model certainty

🟢 Model certainty: High

Confidence 52%, low entropy, full data — signal is reliable.

CLV — closing line value

⚪ CLV: Neutral

No strong market movement detected. Edge may hold to closing.

Absence numeric impact

Cagliari: 10% squad value absent — significant squad weakening
Cagliari: 1 CB absent — central space available
Cagliari: Attacking threat reduced

Referee profile

Referee: Domenica 24/05

Discipline & cards

Milan — red card risk: Niedrig (4%)
Cagliari — red card risk: Niedrig (6%)
Milan: 1.97 yellows/game (season)
Cagliari: 2.15 yellows/game (season)
Volatility: Medium

Odds & edge

Milan @ 1.26 · fair odds: 1.70 · edge 0.0%
Draw @ 5.38 · fair odds: 4.35 · edge 0.0%
Cagliari @ 11.53 · fair odds: 5.52 · edge 0.0%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Milan vs Cagliari

Milan host Cagliari on 24 May, 18:45 in Serie A (Italy). The ScoreSight model favours Sieg Milan with 52% confidence. Model probabilities: Milan 59%, Draw 23%, Cagliari 18%. Over 2.5 goals: 55% · BTTS: 52%. Tactical signal: High Confidence. 4 absences recorded across both squads.

Match completed 📊 Post-match stats available →

Half-by-half xG, lineups and event timeline for completed matches.