Roma vs Fiorentina

22 Aug, 13:00 · Main prediction: Win Roma · 39.7% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Win RomaMain pick

54.0%Over 2.5

54.8%BTTS Yes

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Roma	44.7% / N/A
Draw	23.7% / N/A
Fiorentina	31.7% / N/A

🧠 Why this prediction?

Roma favorit acasă (45% probabilitate model). Roma în formă superioară (formă recentă: 15 vs 6 pts).

Tactical signal: Coach Advantage Home.
Tactical signal: Contrarian: Home.
Absences and squad availability affect the match read.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.54) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (40%) — prediction is close to random
Contrarian signal active — sharp money may disagree with the model

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Absence numeric impact

Roma: 10% squad value absent — significant squad weakening
Roma: 1 CB absent — central space available
Roma: Attacking threat reduced
Fiorentina: 1 CB absent — central space available

Odds & edge

Roma @ 1.44 · fair odds: 2.24 · edge 0.0%
Draw @ 3.95 · fair odds: 4.22 · edge 0.0%
Fiorentina @ 6.1 · fair odds: 3.15 · edge 0.0%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Roma vs Fiorentina

Roma host Fiorentina on 22 Aug, 13:00 in Serie A (Italy). The ScoreSight model favours Win Roma with 40% confidence. Model probabilities: Roma 45%, Draw 24%, Fiorentina 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 54% · BTTS: 55%. Tactical signal: Coach Advantage Home. 3 absences recorded across both squads.