WSG Tirol vs Sturm Graz

Sâm, 15:00 · Main prediction: Pareggio · 39.6% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

PareggioMain pick

58.4%Over 2.5

60.1%BTTS Yes

⚠️ Lean: Draw (low conf) Draw pick below 55% confidence — statistically unreliable.

Model vs market probabilities

WSG Tirol	44.6% / 24.3%
Pareggio	34.8% / 25.5%
Sturm Graz	20.7% / 50.2%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Meci echilibrat, șanse mari de egal (35% probabilitate model). Piața subapreciază (35% model vs 26% bookmaker, edge +9%).

Tactical signal: Strong Value.
Tactical signal: Weak Home Ground.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.52) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (40%) — prediction is close to random
Draw picks historically underperform — markets often under-price draws

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

WSG Tirol @ 3.75 · fair odds: 2.24 · edge 20.3%
Draw @ 3.58 · fair odds: 2.87 · edge 9.3%
Sturm Graz @ 1.9 · fair odds: 4.83 · edge -29.5%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: WSG Tirol vs Sturm Graz

WSG Tirol host Sturm Graz on Sat, 15:00 in Austria Bundesliga (Austria). The ScoreSight model favours Pareggio with 40% confidence. Model probabilities: WSG Tirol 45%, Draw 35%, Sturm Graz 21%. Over 2.5 goals: 58% · BTTS: 60%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 29.5%. Tactical signal: Strong Value.