Bahia vs Vasco da Gama

9 Aug, 19:00 · Main prediction: Vittoria Bahia · 45.5% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Vittoria BahiaMain pick

44.5%Under 2.5

53.7%BTTS Yes

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Bahia	50.5% / 52.2%
Pareggio	26.7% / 26.1%
Vasco da Gama	22.7% / 21.7%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Bahia favorit acasă (51% probabilitate model). Fortăreață acasă (8 pts ultimele 5 meciuri home).

Tactical signal: Card-Heavy Game.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.49) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (46%) — prediction is close to random

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

Bahia @ 1.8 · fair odds: 1.98 · edge -1.7%
Draw @ 3.4 · fair odds: 3.75 · edge 0.7%
Vasco da Gama @ 4 · fair odds: 4.41 · edge 1.1%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Bahia vs Vasco da Gama

Bahia host Vasco da Gama on 9 Aug, 19:00 in Brasileirão (Brazil). The ScoreSight model favours Vittoria Bahia with 46% confidence. Model probabilities: Bahia 51%, Draw 27%, Vasco da Gama 23%. Over 2.5 goals: 45% · BTTS: 54%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 1.7%. Tactical signal: Card-Heavy Game.