Botafogo vs Santos

Ieri, 22:30 · Main prediction: Win Botafogo · 40.3% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Win BotafogoMain pick

48.1%Under 2.5

55.9%BTTS Yes

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Botafogo	45.3% / 46.0%
Draw	27.5% / 27.2%
Santos	27.2% / 26.8%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Botafogo favorit acasă (45% probabilitate model). Model și piață în acord (45%).

Tactical signal: Card-Heavy Game.
Tactical signal: Weak Home Ground.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.54) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (40%) — prediction is close to random

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

Botafogo @ 2.08 · fair odds: 2.21 · edge -0.7%
Draw @ 3.42 · fair odds: 3.64 · edge 0.4%
Santos @ 3.46 · fair odds: 3.68 · edge 0.4%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Botafogo vs Santos

Botafogo host Santos on Yesterday, 22:30 in Brasileirão (Brazil). The ScoreSight model favours Win Botafogo with 40% confidence. Model probabilities: Botafogo 45%, Draw 28%, Santos 27%. Over 2.5 goals: 48% · BTTS: 56%. Tactical signal: Card-Heavy Game.

Match completed 📊 Post-match stats available →

Half-by-half xG, lineups and event timeline for completed matches.