Coritiba vs Palmeiras

Mie, 22:30 · Main prediction: Win Palmeiras · 38.4% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Win PalmeirasMain pick

43.3%Under 2.5

50.9%BTTS No

⛔ Match to Avoid High market entropy — model and market disagree significantly. Risk is elevated.

Model vs market probabilities

Coritiba	27.0% / 26.6%
Draw	29.7% / 29.2%
Palmeiras	43.4% / 44.3%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Palmeiras favorit în deplasare (43% probabilitate model). Palmeiras puternic în deplasare (11 pts ultimele 5 away).

Tactical signal: Uncertain Match.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.55) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

Coritiba @ 3.47 · fair odds: 3.70 · edge 0.4%
Draw @ 3.18 · fair odds: 3.37 · edge 0.5%
Palmeiras @ 2.15 · fair odds: 2.30 · edge -0.9%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Coritiba vs Palmeiras

Coritiba host Palmeiras on Wed, 22:30 in Brasileirão (Brazil). The ScoreSight model favours Win Palmeiras with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: Coritiba 27%, Draw 30%, Palmeiras 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 43% · BTTS: 51%. Tactical signal: Uncertain Match.