Cruzeiro vs Mirassol

9 Aug, 14:00 · Main prediction: Vitória Cruzeiro · 47.3% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Vitória CruzeiroMain pick

49.9%Under 2.5

53.5%BTTS Yes

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Cruzeiro	52.3% / 54.1%
Empate	27.8% / 27.2%
Mirassol	19.9% / 18.7%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Cruzeiro favorit acasă (52% probabilitate model). Model și piață în acord (52%).

Tactical signal: Card-Heavy Game.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.47) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (47%) — prediction is close to random

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

Cruzeiro @ 1.75 · fair odds: 1.91 · edge -1.7%
Draw @ 3.3 · fair odds: 3.60 · edge 0.5%
Mirassol @ 4.6 · fair odds: 5.03 · edge 1.2%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Cruzeiro vs Mirassol

Cruzeiro host Mirassol on 9 Aug, 14:00 in Brasileirão (Brazil). The ScoreSight model favours Vitória Cruzeiro with 47% confidence. Model probabilities: Cruzeiro 52%, Draw 28%, Mirassol 20%. Over 2.5 goals: 50% · BTTS: 54%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 1.7%. Tactical signal: Card-Heavy Game.