Wisła Płock vs Widzew Łódź

Vin, 16:00 · Main prediction: Pareggio · 38.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

PareggioMain pick

50.0%Under 2.5

55.0%BTTS Yes

⛔ Match to Avoid High market entropy — model and market disagree significantly. Risk is elevated.

Model vs market probabilities

Wisła Płock	29.0% / 28.8%
Pareggio	33.3% / 33.3%
Widzew Łódź	37.7% / 37.9%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Meci echilibrat, șanse mari de egal (33% probabilitate model). Model și piață în acord (33%).

Tactical signal: Uncertain Match.
Tactical signal: Weak Home Ground.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.58) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random
Draw picks historically underperform — markets often under-price draws

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

Wisła Płock @ 3.26 · fair odds: 3.45 · edge 0.2%
Draw @ 2.84 · fair odds: 3.00 · edge 0.0%
Widzew Łódź @ 2.51 · fair odds: 2.65 · edge -0.2%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Wisła Płock vs Widzew Łódź

Wisła Płock host Widzew Łódź on Fri, 16:00 in Ekstraklasa (Poland). The ScoreSight model favours Pareggio with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: Wisła Płock 29%, Draw 33%, Widzew Łódź 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 50% · BTTS: 55%. Tactical signal: Uncertain Match.