Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers

Vin, 19:00 · Main prediction: Win Shamrock Rovers · 47.9% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Win Shamrock RoversMain pick

48.1%Under 2.5

57.7%BTTS Yes

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Drogheda United	19.7% / 20.0%
Draw	27.5% / 26.2%
Shamrock Rovers	52.9% / 53.8%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Shamrock Rovers favorit în deplasare (53% probabilitate model). Shamrock Rovers puternic în deplasare (9 pts ultimele 5 away).

Tactical signal: Contrarian: Away.
Tactical signal: Card-Heavy Game.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.46) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (48%) — prediction is close to random
Contrarian signal active — sharp money may disagree with the model

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

Drogheda United @ 4.41 · fair odds: 5.08 · edge -0.3%
Draw @ 3.46 · fair odds: 3.64 · edge 1.2%
Shamrock Rovers @ 1.77 · fair odds: 1.89 · edge -0.9%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers

Drogheda United host Shamrock Rovers on Fri, 19:00 in Ireland Premier Division (Ireland). The ScoreSight model favours Win Shamrock Rovers with 48% confidence. Model probabilities: Drogheda United 20%, Draw 28%, Shamrock Rovers 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48% · BTTS: 58%. Tactical signal: Contrarian: Away.