St Patricks Athletic vs Derry City

Dum, 16:00 · Main prediction: Vitória St Patricks Athletic · 46.2% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Vitória St Patricks AthleticMain pick

48.1%Under 2.5

57.7%BTTS Yes

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

St Patricks Athletic	51.2% / 52.6%
Empate	27.4% / 27.0%
Derry City	21.4% / 20.4%

🧠 Why this prediction?

St Patricks Athletic favorit acasă (51% probabilitate model). Model și piață în acord (51%).

Tactical signal: Weak Home Ground.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.48) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (46%) — prediction is close to random

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

St Patricks Athletic @ 1.81 · fair odds: 1.95 · edge -1.4%
Draw @ 3.38 · fair odds: 3.65 · edge 0.5%
Derry City @ 4.34 · fair odds: 4.67 · edge 0.9%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: St Patricks Athletic vs Derry City

St Patricks Athletic host Derry City on Sun, 16:00 in Ireland Premier Division (Ireland). The ScoreSight model favours Vitória St Patricks Athletic with 46% confidence. Model probabilities: St Patricks Athletic 51%, Draw 27%, Derry City 21%. Over 2.5 goals: 48% · BTTS: 58%. Tactical signal: Weak Home Ground.