Pumas vs Querétaro

16 Aug, 18:00 · Main prediction: Vitória Querétaro · 38.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Vitória QuerétaroMain pick

41.9%Under 2.5

42.9%BTTS No

⛔ Match to Avoid High market entropy — model and market disagree significantly. Risk is elevated.

Model vs market probabilities

Pumas	30.5% / 58.5%
Empate	30.7% / 23.8%
Querétaro	38.7% / 17.7%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Querétaro favorit în deplasare (39% probabilitate model). Piața subapreciază (39% model vs 18% bookmaker, edge +21%).

Tactical signal: Strong Value.
Tactical signal: Uncertain Match.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.58) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

Pumas @ 1.6 · fair odds: 3.28 · edge -28.0%
Draw @ 3.6 · fair odds: 3.26 · edge 7.0%
Querétaro @ 4.6 · fair odds: 2.58 · edge 21.0%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Pumas vs Querétaro

Pumas host Querétaro on 16 Aug, 18:00 in Liga MX (Mexico). The ScoreSight model favours Vitória Querétaro with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: Pumas 31%, Draw 31%, Querétaro 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 42% · BTTS: 43%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 28.0%. Tactical signal: Strong Value.