Querétaro vs Tigres

Sâm, 23:00 · Main prediction: Vitória Tigres · 38.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Vitória TigresMain pick

35.2%Under 2.5

38.1%BTTS No

⛔ Match to Avoid High market entropy — model and market disagree significantly. Risk is elevated.

Model vs market probabilities

Querétaro	27.5% / 20.9%
Empate	32.5% / 26.2%
Tigres	40.0% / 53.0%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Tigres favorit în deplasare (40% probabilitate model).

Tactical signal: Value Detected.
Tactical signal: Uncertain Match.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.57) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

Querétaro @ 4 · fair odds: 3.64 · edge 6.6%
Draw @ 3.3 · fair odds: 3.08 · edge 6.3%
Tigres @ 1.75 · fair odds: 2.50 · edge -13.0%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Querétaro vs Tigres

Querétaro host Tigres on Sat, 23:00 in Liga MX (Mexico). The ScoreSight model favours Vitória Tigres with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: Querétaro 28%, Draw 33%, Tigres 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 35% · BTTS: 38%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 13.0%. Tactical signal: Value Detected.