CF Montreal vs D.C. United

15 Aug, 23:30 · Main prediction: Victoria CF Montreal · 38.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Victoria CF MontrealMain pick

49.7%Under 2.5

59.4%BTTS Yes

⛔ Match to Avoid High market entropy — model and market disagree significantly. Risk is elevated.

Model vs market probabilities

CF Montreal	42.3% / 43.2%
Empate	25.3% / 24.4%
D.C. United	32.5% / 32.4%

🧠 Why this prediction?

CF Montreal favorit acasă (42% probabilitate model). Model și piață în acord (42%).

Tactical signal: Uncertain Match.
Tactical signal: Contrarian: Away.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.55) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random
Contrarian signal active — sharp money may disagree with the model

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

CF Montreal @ 2.15 · fair odds: 2.36 · edge -0.9%
Draw @ 3.6 · fair odds: 3.95 · edge 0.8%
D.C. United @ 2.8 · fair odds: 3.08 · edge 0.1%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: CF Montreal vs D.C. United

CF Montreal host D.C. United on 15 Aug, 23:30 in MLS (USA). The ScoreSight model favours Victoria CF Montreal with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: CF Montreal 42%, Draw 25%, D.C. United 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 50% · BTTS: 59%. Tactical signal: Uncertain Match.