CF Montreal vs New England Revolution

Sâm, 23:30 · Main prediction: Vitória CF Montreal · 38.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Vitória CF MontrealMain pick

47.4%Under 2.5

54.5%BTTS Yes

⛔ Match to Avoid High market entropy — model and market disagree significantly. Risk is elevated.

Model vs market probabilities

CF Montreal	42.9% / 43.5%
Empate	26.1% / 25.6%
New England Revolution	31.0% / 30.9%

🧠 Why this prediction?

CF Montreal favorit acasă (43% probabilitate model). Model și piață în acord (43%).

Tactical signal: Uncertain Match.
Tactical signal: Contrarian: Away.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.55) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random
Contrarian signal active — sharp money may disagree with the model

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

CF Montreal @ 2.18 · fair odds: 2.33 · edge -0.7%
Draw @ 3.58 · fair odds: 3.83 · edge 0.5%
New England Revolution @ 3.01 · fair odds: 3.23 · edge 0.2%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: CF Montreal vs New England Revolution

CF Montreal host New England Revolution on Sat, 23:30 in MLS (USA). The ScoreSight model favours Vitória CF Montreal with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: CF Montreal 43%, Draw 26%, New England Revolution 31%. Over 2.5 goals: 47% · BTTS: 55%. Tactical signal: Uncertain Match.