Fulham vs Newcastle

24 Mai, 15:00 · Main prediction: Win Fulham · 38.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Win FulhamMain pick

51.1%Under 2.5

53.9%BTTS Yes

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Fulham	43.8% / 33.5%
Draw	24.6% / 25.6%
Newcastle	31.6% / 40.8%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Fulham favorit acasă (44% probabilitate model). Fortăreață acasă (9 pts ultimele 5 meciuri home).

Tactical signal: Strong Value.
Tactical signal: Steam: Odds Drifting Out.
Absences and squad availability affect the match read.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.54) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Absence numeric impact

Newcastle: 10% squad value absent — significant squad weakening
Fulham: 1 CB absent — central space available
Fulham: Attacking threat reduced
Newcastle: Defensive line weakened (3 CBs absent)

Odds & edge

Fulham @ 2.81 · fair odds: 2.28 · edge 10.3%
Draw @ 3.61 · fair odds: 4.07 · edge -1.1%
Newcastle @ 2.33 · fair odds: 3.16 · edge -9.2%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Fulham vs Newcastle

Fulham host Newcastle on 24 May, 15:00 in Premier League (England). The ScoreSight model favours Win Fulham with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: Fulham 44%, Draw 25%, Newcastle 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 51% · BTTS: 54%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 10.3%. Tactical signal: Strong Value. 6 absences recorded across both squads.

Match completed 📊 Post-match stats available →

Half-by-half xG, lineups and event timeline for completed matches.