Nott'm Forest vs Bournemouth

24 Mai, 15:00 · Main prediction: Vitória Bournemouth · 41.8% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Vitória BournemouthMain pick

47.8%Under 2.5

51.7%BTTS No

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Nott'm Forest	24.5% / 27.5%
Empate	28.6% / 24.4%
Bournemouth	46.8% / 48.1%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Bournemouth favorit în deplasare (47% probabilitate model). Bournemouth puternic în deplasare (11 pts ultimele 5 away).

Tactical signal: Home Strong Finisher.
Tactical signal: Steam: Odds Drifting Out.
Absences and squad availability affect the match read.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.53) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (42%) — prediction is close to random
Nott'm Forest missing 17% squad value — lineup disruption

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Absence numeric impact

Nott'm Forest: 17% squad value absent — significant squad weakening
Nott'm Forest: Defensive line weakened (3 CBs absent)
Nott'm Forest: Attacking threat reduced
Bournemouth: 1 CB absent — central space available

Odds & edge

Nott'm Forest @ 3.37 · fair odds: 4.08 · edge -3.0%
Draw @ 3.77 · fair odds: 3.50 · edge 4.3%
Bournemouth @ 1.99 · fair odds: 2.14 · edge -1.3%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Nott'm Forest vs Bournemouth

Nott'm Forest host Bournemouth on 24 May, 15:00 in Premier League (England). The ScoreSight model favours Vitória Bournemouth with 42% confidence. Model probabilities: Nott'm Forest 25%, Draw 29%, Bournemouth 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 48% · BTTS: 52%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 4.3%. Tactical signal: Home Strong Finisher. 5 absences recorded across both squads.

Match completed 📊 Post-match stats available →

Half-by-half xG, lineups and event timeline for completed matches.