Tottenham vs Everton

Model vs market probabilities

Tottenham	36.5% / 51.4%
Draw	25.7% / 26.3%
Everton	37.8% / 22.3%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Everton favorit în deplasare (38% probabilitate model). Piața subapreciază (38% model vs 22% bookmaker, edge +15%).

• Tactical signal: Strong Value.
• Tactical signal: Balanced Match.
• Absences and squad availability affect the match read.

Why could this be wrong?

• High market entropy (1.57) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
• Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random
• Tottenham missing 27% squad value — lineup disruption
• Everton missing 16% squad value — lineup disruption

Model certainty

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Absence numeric impact

• Tottenham: 27% squad value absent — significant squad weakening
• Everton: 16% squad value absent — significant squad weakening
• Tottenham: Defensive line weakened (2 CBs absent)
• Tottenham: Attacking threat reduced
• Everton: 1 CB absent — central space available

Odds & edge

• Tottenham @ 1.87 · fair odds: 2.74 · edge -14.9%
• Draw @ 3.53 · fair odds: 3.89 · edge -0.5%
• Everton @ 4.1 · fair odds: 2.65 · edge 15.5%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.