West Ham vs Leeds

24 Mai, 15:00 · Main prediction: Win West Ham · 38.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Win West HamMain pick

50.3%Under 2.5

54.0%BTTS Yes

⛔ Match to Avoid High market entropy — model and market disagree significantly. Risk is elevated.

Model vs market probabilities

West Ham	41.1% / 55.1%
Draw	29.9% / 22.7%
Leeds	29.0% / 22.2%

🧠 Why this prediction?

West Ham favorit acasă (41% probabilitate model). Fortăreață acasă (8 pts ultimele 5 meciuri home).

Tactical signal: Away Strong Finisher.
Tactical signal: Value Detected.
Absences and squad availability affect the match read.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.57) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random
Contrarian signal active — sharp money may disagree with the model

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Absence numeric impact

West Ham: GK absent — lineup disruption
Leeds: CDM absent — midfield cover reduced

Odds & edge

West Ham @ 1.75 · fair odds: 2.43 · edge -14.0%
Draw @ 4.04 · fair odds: 3.34 · edge 7.2%
Leeds @ 4.12 · fair odds: 3.45 · edge 6.8%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: West Ham vs Leeds

West Ham host Leeds on 24 May, 15:00 in Premier League (England). The ScoreSight model favours Win West Ham with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: West Ham 41%, Draw 30%, Leeds 29%. Over 2.5 goals: 50% · BTTS: 54%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 14.0%. Tactical signal: Away Strong Finisher. 2 absences recorded across both squads.

Match completed 📊 Post-match stats available →

Half-by-half xG, lineups and event timeline for completed matches.