Arouca vs Tondela

16 Mai, 17:00 · Main prediction: Vitória Tondela · 38.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Vitória TondelaMain pick

50.7%Under 2.5

52.4%BTTS Yes

⛔ Match to Avoid High market entropy — model and market disagree significantly. Risk is elevated.

Model vs market probabilities

Arouca	35.1% / 30.3%
Empate	29.1% / 26.3%
Tondela	35.9% / 43.5%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Tondela favorit în deplasare (36% probabilitate model).

Tactical signal: Home Strong Finisher.
Tactical signal: Balanced Match.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.58) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random
Balanced probabilities — small model signal, easy to flip

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

Arouca @ 3.06 · fair odds: 2.85 · edge 4.8%
Draw @ 3.49 · fair odds: 3.44 · edge 2.8%
Tondela @ 2.18 · fair odds: 2.79 · edge -7.6%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Arouca vs Tondela

Arouca host Tondela on 16 May, 17:00 in Primeira Liga (Portugal). The ScoreSight model favours Vitória Tondela with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: Arouca 35%, Draw 29%, Tondela 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 51% · BTTS: 52%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 7.6%. Tactical signal: Home Strong Finisher.

Match completed 📊 Post-match stats available →

Half-by-half xG, lineups and event timeline for completed matches.