Atalanta vs Sassuolo

22 Aug, 13:00 · Main prediction: Vitória Atalanta · 38.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Vitória AtalantaMain pick

57.7%Over 2.5

56.3%BTTS Yes

⛔ Match to Avoid High market entropy — model and market disagree significantly. Risk is elevated.

Model vs market probabilities

Atalanta	39.5% / 64.4%
Empate	24.6% / 20.7%
Sassuolo	35.9% / 14.9%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Atalanta favorit acasă (40% probabilitate model).

Tactical signal: Away Strong Finisher.
Tactical signal: Strong Value.
Absences and squad availability affect the match read.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.56) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random
Sassuolo missing 24% squad value — lineup disruption
Balanced probabilities — small model signal, easy to flip

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Absence numeric impact

Sassuolo: 24% squad value absent — significant squad weakening
Sassuolo: Defensive line weakened (3 CBs absent)

Odds & edge

Atalanta @ 1.47 · fair odds: 2.53 · edge -24.9%
Draw @ 4.1 · fair odds: 4.07 · edge 3.8%
Sassuolo @ 5.4 · fair odds: 2.79 · edge 21.0%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Atalanta vs Sassuolo

Atalanta host Sassuolo on 22 Aug, 13:00 in Serie A (Italy). The ScoreSight model favours Vitória Atalanta with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: Atalanta 40%, Draw 25%, Sassuolo 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 58% · BTTS: 56%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 24.9%. Tactical signal: Away Strong Finisher. 7 absences recorded across both squads.