Parma vs Cagliari

22 Aug, 13:00 · Main prediction: Victoria Cagliari · 38.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Victoria CagliariMain pick

49.4%Under 2.5

51.6%BTTS No

⛔ Match to Avoid High market entropy — model and market disagree significantly. Risk is elevated.

Model vs market probabilities

Parma	28.6% / 36.3%
Empate	30.3% / 31.0%
Cagliari	41.0% / 32.7%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Cagliari favorit în deplasare (41% probabilitate model). Cagliari în formă superioară (formă: 10 vs 6 pts).

Tactical signal: Value Detected.
Tactical signal: Tight Game Expected.
Absences and squad availability affect the match read.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.57) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random
Parma missing 21% squad value — lineup disruption

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Absence numeric impact

Parma: 21% squad value absent — significant squad weakening
Parma: GK absent — lineup disruption
Parma: Attacking threat reduced
Cagliari: 1 CB absent — central space available
Cagliari: Attacking threat reduced

Odds & edge

Parma @ 2.5 · fair odds: 3.50 · edge -7.7%
Draw @ 2.88 · fair odds: 3.30 · edge -0.7%
Cagliari @ 2.75 · fair odds: 2.44 · edge 8.4%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Parma vs Cagliari

Parma host Cagliari on 22 Aug, 13:00 in Serie A (Italy). The ScoreSight model favours Victoria Cagliari with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: Parma 29%, Draw 30%, Cagliari 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 49% · BTTS: 52%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 8.4%. Tactical signal: Value Detected. 8 absences recorded across both squads.