Roma vs Fiorentina

23 Aug, 16:30 · Main prediction: Vittoria Roma · 38.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Vittoria RomaMain pick

53.8%Over 2.5

54.7%BTTS Yes

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Roma	39.2% / N/A
Pareggio	22.7% / N/A
Fiorentina	38.2% / N/A

🧠 Why this prediction?

Roma favorit acasă (39% probabilitate model). Roma în formă superioară (formă recentă: 15 vs 6 pts).

Tactical signal: Balanced Match.
Tactical signal: Coach Advantage Home.
Absences and squad availability affect the match read.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.55) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random
Roma missing 18% squad value — lineup disruption
Balanced probabilities — small model signal, easy to flip

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Absence numeric impact

Roma: 18% squad value absent — significant squad weakening
Roma: Defensive line weakened (2 CBs absent)
Roma: Attacking threat reduced
Fiorentina: 1 CB absent — central space available

Analysis: Roma vs Fiorentina

Roma host Fiorentina on 23 Aug, 16:30 in Serie A (Italy). The ScoreSight model favours Vittoria Roma with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: Roma 39%, Draw 23%, Fiorentina 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 54% · BTTS: 55%. Tactical signal: Balanced Match. 4 absences recorded across both squads.