Lecce vs Genoa

Model vs market probabilities

Lecce	33.4% / 55.3%
Draw	24.3% / 26.6%
Genoa	42.2% / 18.1%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Genoa favorit în deplasare (42% probabilitate model). Genoa puternic în deplasare (8 pts ultimele 5 away).

• Tactical signal: Strong Value.
• Tactical signal: Home: Fast starter.
• Absences and squad availability affect the match read.

Why could this be wrong?

• High market entropy (1.55) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
• Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random
• Genoa missing 28% squad value — lineup disruption

Model certainty

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Absence numeric impact

• Lecce: 10% squad value absent — significant squad weakening
• Genoa: 28% squad value absent — significant squad weakening
• Lecce: Attacking threat reduced
• Genoa: GK absent — lineup disruption
• Genoa: 1 CB absent — central space available

Referee profile

• Referee: Domenica 24/05

Discipline & cards

• Lecce — red card risk: Low (5%)
• Genoa — red card risk: Low (5%)
• Lecce: 1.98 yellows/game (season)
• Genoa: 2.07 yellows/game (season)
• Volatility: Medium

Odds & edge

• Lecce @ 1.74 · fair odds: 2.99 · edge -21.8%
• Draw @ 3.47 · fair odds: 4.12 · edge -2.3%
• Genoa @ 4.91 · fair odds: 2.37 · edge 24.1%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.