Pronostics Plus de 2,5 buts — aujourd'hui
Pronostics plus de 2,5 buts aujourd'hui — filtrés. On évite les picks fragiles et le drift de marché. Vrais signaux, 14 ligues.
Tous les plus de 2,5 ne passent pas le filtre. Nous sautons les matchs avec un mouvement de marché contraire, un edge fragile ou une haute volatilité — seulement des picks avec un vrai signal.
No matches fit this filter right now — the club season is between fixtures.
Club leagues are on a break — here are today's World Cup matches with their goal tendency. Tap for the full prediction.
Explore filtered Over 2.5 picks for each individual league.
An Over 2.5 goals prediction means the model expects 3 or more total goals in the match. It pays out on any scoreline with 3+ goals (e.g. 2–1, 3–0, 2–2) regardless of which team wins.
ScoreSight generates Over 2.5 predictions using a Poisson goal distribution model trained on 10+ seasons of data across 14 European leagues, calibrated with Dixon-Coles correction for low-scoring bias. Verified accuracy over the last 60 days: 53.9% from 254 settled matches.
- Check the probability — ScoreSight shows the model's Over 2.5 probability (e.g. 68%). Compare it to the bookmaker's implied probability (100 / odds).
- Look for edge — if the model says 68% but the bookmaker implies 58%, that's a +10% edge — a value bet.
- Consider the referee — open-style referees allow more fouls and award more penalties, increasing goals. ScoreSight flags high-goal referee profiles.
- Check H2H — some fixtures are historically high-scoring regardless of form.
- What does Over 2.5 goals mean?
- The total goals in the match (both teams combined) must be 3 or more. A 2–1 result = 3 goals = Over 2.5 wins. A 1–1 = 2 goals = Under 2.5 wins.
- How is the Over 2.5 probability calculated?
- ScoreSight uses Poisson distribution with expected goals (xG) derived from attack/defence ratings, recent form, H2H and market lines. Each league is calibrated separately on 10+ seasons of historical data.
- Which leagues produce the most Over 2.5 matches?
- The Bundesliga, Premier League and Eredivisie average 2.7–3.1 goals per match — highest in Europe. Serie A and Ligue 1 average closer to 2.5. Check the league table above for current season accuracy.
- Is Over 2.5 profitable long-term?
- Only if you find positive expected value — matches where the model's probability exceeds what the bookmaker implies. ScoreSight highlights the edge for each match so you can compare directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Ligue | Paris résolus | Précision O/U |
|---|---|---|
| Scottish Prem. | 12 | 75% |
| Premier League | 18 | 72.2% |
| Ligue 2 | 11 | 63.6% |
| La Liga | 32 | 62.5% |
| Championship | 10 | 60% |
| League One | 16 | 56.3% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 18 | 50% |
| Eredivisie | 18 | 50% |
Accuracy = percentage of Over/Under 2.5 predictions (both Over and Under) that matched the actual result. Minimum 10 settled matches to appear.
Certains matchs ressemblent à des picks Plus de 2,5 mais comportent des signaux de risque : edge faux, ligue chaotique ou arbitre strict. ScoreSight les signale séparément.
Voir quels Plus de 2,5 éviter aujourd'hui →