Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup?

Q: Who will win the 2026 World Cup?

France are our model's top pick (outright 5.0), followed by Argentina, Brazil and Spain. Morocco and Norway are the standout dark horses.

Our AI model ranks France as the favourite, but the value is rarely in the obvious pick. Here are the ranked favourites and the dark horses worth watching.

⭐ Ranked Favourites

🇫🇷

France

Strongest squad depth, Mbappé in prime form

Outright

5.0

🇦🇷

Argentina

Defending champions, Messi's farewell tournament

Outright

6.0

🇧🇷

Brazil

New generation stars, historic WC pedigree

Outright

6.5

🇩🇪

Germany

Resurgent under Nagelsmann, high-tempo pressing

Outright

8.0

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

England

Deep squad, strong domestic form, hungry for first title

Outright

9.0

🇪🇸

Spain

Euro 2024 champions, elite technical quality

Outright

10.0

🐎 Dark Horses to Watch

🇲🇦 Morocco — 2022 semi-finalists — the run was no fluke

🇳🇴 Norway — Haaland's first World Cup, open group draw

🇵🇹 Portugal — Elite squad, Ronaldo's likely farewell motivation

🇳🇱 Netherlands — Tournament pedigree and a balanced side

🇺🇾 Uruguay — Battle-hardened, dangerous in knockouts

🇸🇳 Senegal — AFCON 2021 champions, best-balanced African side

Predictions are generated by a Poisson goal model trained on 10 seasons across 14 leagues, blended with squad strength and form — not just bookmaker odds. Outright prices shown are indicative.

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