Coritiba vs Cruzeiro

Vin, 00:30 · Main prediction: Victoire Cruzeiro · 38.0% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Victoire CruzeiroMain pick

43.3%Under 2.5

51.4%BTTS No

⛔ Match to Avoid High market entropy — model and market disagree significantly. Risk is elevated.

Model vs market probabilities

Coritiba	28.7% / 28.5%
Match Nul	28.5% / 28.2%
Cruzeiro	42.8% / 43.3%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Cruzeiro favorit în deplasare (43% probabilitate model). Cruzeiro puternic în deplasare (10 pts ultimele 5 away).

Tactical signal: Uncertain Match.
Tactical signal: Steam: Odds Drifting Out.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.56) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (38%) — prediction is close to random

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

Coritiba @ 3.29 · fair odds: 3.48 · edge 0.3%
Draw @ 3.32 · fair odds: 3.51 · edge 0.3%
Cruzeiro @ 2.21 · fair odds: 2.34 · edge -0.5%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Coritiba vs Cruzeiro

Coritiba host Cruzeiro on Fri, 00:30 in Brasileirão (Brazil). The ScoreSight model favours Victoire Cruzeiro with 38% confidence. Model probabilities: Coritiba 29%, Draw 28%, Cruzeiro 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 43% · BTTS: 51%. Tactical signal: Uncertain Match.