Ipswich vs Sunderland

22 Aug, 14:00 · Main prediction: Victoire Sunderland · 44.1% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Victoire SunderlandMain pick

39.2%Under 2.5

46.6%BTTS No

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Ipswich	22.3% / 35.2%
Match Nul	28.6% / 27.8%
Sunderland	49.1% / 37.1%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Sunderland favorit în deplasare (49% probabilitate model). Sunderland în formă superioară (formă: 8 vs 1 pts).

Tactical signal: Strong Value.
Tactical signal: Weak Home Ground.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.50) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (44%) — prediction is close to random

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

Ipswich @ 2.66 · fair odds: 4.48 · edge -12.8%
Draw @ 3.31 · fair odds: 3.50 · edge 0.9%
Sunderland @ 2.53 · fair odds: 2.04 · edge 12.0%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Ipswich vs Sunderland

Ipswich host Sunderland on 22 Aug, 14:00 in Premier League (England). The ScoreSight model favours Victoire Sunderland with 44% confidence. Model probabilities: Ipswich 22%, Draw 29%, Sunderland 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 39% · BTTS: 47%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 12.8%. Tactical signal: Strong Value.