Estoril vs Benfica

16 Mai, 19:30 · Main prediction: Victoire Benfica · 50.8% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Victoire BenficaMain pick

53.2%Over 2.5

55.1%BTTS Yes

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Estoril	23.2% / N/A
Match Nul	21.0% / N/A
Benfica	55.8% / N/A

🧠 Why this prediction?

Benfica favorit în deplasare (56% probabilitate model). Benfica în formă superioară (formă: 11 vs 2 pts).

Tactical signal: Away Strong Finisher.
Tactical signal: High Confidence.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.43) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (51%) — prediction is close to random

Model certainty

🟡 Model certainty: Medium

Confidence 51%, some data missing.

CLV — closing line value

⚪ CLV: Neutral

No strong market movement detected. Edge may hold to closing.

Odds & edge

Estoril @ 8.35 · fair odds: 4.31 · edge 0.0%
Draw @ 5.72 · fair odds: 4.76 · edge 0.0%
Benfica @ 1.29 · fair odds: 1.79 · edge 0.0%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Estoril vs Benfica

Estoril host Benfica on 16 May, 19:30 in Primeira Liga (Portugal). The ScoreSight model favours Victoire Benfica with 51% confidence. Model probabilities: Estoril 23%, Draw 21%, Benfica 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53% · BTTS: 55%. Tactical signal: Away Strong Finisher.

Match completed 📊 Post-match stats available →

Half-by-half xG, lineups and event timeline for completed matches.