Nacional vs Setubal

16 Mai, 17:00 · Main prediction: Victoire Nacional · 40.9% confidence. This page exposes tactical context, model probabilities, market edge and the main absences.

Victoire NacionalMain pick

49.1%Under 2.5

52.1%BTTS Yes

— No bet Edge below 3% minimum threshold — no value detected.

Model vs market probabilities

Nacional	45.9% / 47.9%
Match Nul	29.7% / 26.6%
Setubal	24.4% / 25.5%

🧠 Why this prediction?

Nacional favorit acasă (46% probabilitate model).

Tactical signal: Home Strong Finisher.
Tactical signal: Contrarian: Home.

Why could this be wrong?

High market entropy (1.53) — odds are inconsistent across bookmakers
Low model confidence (41%) — prediction is close to random
Contrarian signal active — sharp money may disagree with the model

Model certainty

🔴 Model certainty: Low

Low confidence or high entropy — treat prediction as indicative only.

CLV — closing line value

⚠️ CLV: Uncertain

High entropy market — closing line is unpredictable. Enter early or avoid.

Odds & edge

Nacional @ 1.98 · fair odds: 2.18 · edge -2.0%
Draw @ 3.42 · fair odds: 3.37 · edge 3.1%
Setubal @ 3.56 · fair odds: 4.10 · edge -1.1%

Bet365 odds sourced from football-data.co.uk public archive — for statistical reference only. Not affiliated with any bookmaker.

Analysis: Nacional vs Setubal

Nacional host Setubal on 16 May, 17:00 in Primeira Liga (Portugal). The ScoreSight model favours Victoire Nacional with 41% confidence. Model probabilities: Nacional 46%, Draw 30%, Setubal 24%. Over 2.5 goals: 49% · BTTS: 52%. Maximum model edge versus bookmaker: 3.1%. Tactical signal: Home Strong Finisher.

Match completed 📊 Post-match stats available →

Half-by-half xG, lineups and event timeline for completed matches.